Understanding Change

Thought I would go for a clever title, impressive eh? What I am referring to is the broad reaction to the 'economic downturn'. The Democrats in America seem genuinely ashamed to have associated themselves with a vote to raise the level of debt hung around the nations neck (hurrah, they say) but with the unacceptable rider that they should do something about it, eg reduce spending. We saw this 'I'm popular when everyone has got money, so I'll keep borrowing' here from the fantasist Gordon Brown. Of course the Democrats would say that they do wish to reduce the debt by increasing taxation. Which is just giving more power, really, to the people who got you into this mess. You may worry about getting into bed with a Republican, but is the suicidal nutcase Democrat really the best choice?

Anyway, we also see pundits, sorry experts, waffling on about which country is doing the best job fiscally and the markets money flows there. Britain seems to be doing OK in their view and whilst that seems sound in itself you have to remember that our position is only slightly more favourable because we are not in the Eurozone, despite politicians desperately trying to join us up. Yes they are that thick; ideology (and personal gain) comes way before actually understanding what they are doing.

Then there are 'retail analysts'. Don't these people make you laugh? They treat companies as entities and address their situation based on 'market sector' and 'buying trends'. In other words, they are actually not applying any intelligence to making predictions they are just recounting statistics, in case you hadn't collected them. Technology companies introduce a new product and the analysts are stumped, because they have no history to rely on. The transistor radio took ages to get established, because industry and its experts said it was a bad idea. Given the choice, people bought them in the millions.

These cherubs sit around in their brain-storming immersion tanks and decide that due to 'discretionary purchasing' being reduced by 'broad economic factors', high street stores will struggle and some will go under. Like a fortune teller in a tent, if vague enough (and couched in 'modernspeak' which is valueless) they will appear to get some of it right. In military circles you do have to study history to understand what happened before, but Generals then, all too often are prepared to fight the last war, not what they are currently facing. So too our analysts. Innovation will be a key tool to beating recession and manufacturers should be investing in R&D (and not asking 'experts' what the market wants!) and retailers should be alive to the possibilities. Look for innovation in your appeal to the customer, understand where the money will be spent and provide those products, lead don't follow and increase efficiency. I know efficiency (and cost reduction) in the minds of the unimaginative managers companies in Britain saddle themselves with, is considered to be redundancies, but often it isn't. If you build a warehouse someone will fill it. Control stock, control distribution. Use your people well. Remember, if everyone follows dopey's example of making people redundant, who the hell is going to have any money to spend on your products!!?

Managers are a key though. Good ones will respond to the situation and find solutions, bad ones will make a bad situation worse. And companies not only recruit bad managers, they almost have a system for finding them. aside from the 'he is a mate of mine, we were part of a team where I used to work', you have the 'tick box' HR mentality (to be fair it isn't just them, but they are the worst). 'We need an experienced manager who has done x,y,z before' runs the formulaic job spec. Why? Because the hiring company lack the imagination to understand what they really need and how a new hire can be a great opportunity to bring in a fresh approach. Naturally the person you look at must have some key skills, but must he have come from an electrical retailer, just because you are? You want him to oversee staff, appraise, motivate, monitor figures and innovate change for the better. If you cannot discover that in any candidate you see, then you should be asking yourself whether you are fit for your role, do you know how to drive the business? A Kennedy said, 'we do not do these things because they are easy, but because they are hard'. The days when Chief Executives think they get the big bucks for turning up should be over. If they aren't then a lot of other, little people will pay with their jobs. And the analysts will say 'I told you so' whether they did or not.